Water demand forecast 2050 (base year 2019) for the WBV Harburg

For the supply area of the Wasserbeschaffungsverband (WBV) Harburg, ISOE analyses the historic development of water demand and prepares a forecast up to the year 2050.

Research approach

ISOE prepares a water demand forecast for the WBV Harburg with a time horizon of 30 years until 2050, which serves to prove the development of the annual water demand for water rights legal procedures to be carried out in the future. At the same time it supports the WBV in its medium-term operational planning. For this purpose, a statistical forecast model is created in which the relevant data and assumptions are combined and the different conditions in the individual supply zones of the supply area are taken into account. As a basis, an analysis of the dependencies of previous water supply levels on demographic, settlement structure, socio-economic and climatic factors is carried out.

Background 

The development of water demand is a decisive variable for water supply, which is determined by a complex interplay of influencing factors. Depending on the specific context, demography, economic and settlement structure, water use behaviour, technologies of water use as well as climate and weather interact in different ways. Against this background, forecasts of water demand pose a challenge, but at the same time they are of great importance for the utilities by providing the prerequisites for ensuring a reliable water supply. Water demand forecasts are used, among other things, to apply for water rights and for infrastructural and operational planning. They can also be an important tool for identifying effective bundles of measures for demand-side regulation in situations of water scarcity with simultaneously high peak demand and for long-term adaptation to the consequences of climate change. The forecasts are always based on a quantitative analysis of the observed water demand in the past.

Client

The project "Preparation of a water demand forecast for the supply area of the WBV Harburg" is commissioned by the Wasserbeschaffungsverband (WBV) Harburg.